The euphoria that followed the removal of Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak in February 2011 seems very distant now.
Egypt felt as if it had a new start. Expectations that life was about to get better bubbled around the country.
But the sky-high hopes have been overwhelmed by a combination of political failure, entrenched interests and economic crisis.
The revolution in 2011, like the other uprisings in Arab
countries, was driven by the dissatisfaction and anger of a new
generation.
About 60% of the population across the region was under the age of 30.
They realised that the old order had no room for them, and
would never satisfy their desire to have a decent job that would give
them the money to have independent lives.
The departure of hope coincided with the exponential growth
in modern communications, which meant that countries could not be shut
off by their leaders in the way that once was possible.
The under-30s could watch
satellite TV, or look at the internet, and realise that not everyone's
lives were as tough as theirs had become.
But the energy of 2011's revolutionaries was squashed by the
power and organisation of established forces in Egypt, particularly the
military, remnants of the old elite and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Egypt is again being governed under emergency law
In the presidential election last year, the choice in the final
round was between the Brotherhood's Mohammed Morsi and a former air
force general who had been Mr Mubarak's last prime minister.
Getting a candidate into the race, let alone to the winning
post, was too much for the fractious, disorganised revolutionaries of
Tahrir Square.
Broken promises
When Mr Morsi won the presidency, he promised to govern for all Egyptians. But he did not.
The Muslim Brotherhood had worked for power for more than 80
years. It was determined to seize its chance to reshape Egypt into the
way it wanted.
Mr Morsi, the public face of the Muslim Brotherhood's top
political leadership, behaved as if it had an overwhelming mandate to
transform Egypt into a much more Islamist state.
Many Egyptians are pious Muslims, but that did not
automatically mean they shared the Brotherhood's austere vision of the
future.
To make matters worse, the Morsi administration was not very
competent. It could not keep its promises about reinvigorating the
economy.
Discontent over the economy and an Islamist agenda provoked June's protests
By the end of June this year, the discontent that had built in
Egypt burst out into the huge protest marches that gave the military its
chance to remove President Morsi.
The move was very popular with almost everyone, except the Muslim Brotherhood.
Even internationally respected liberal democrats, like the
Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei welcomed what had happened.
Mr ElBaradei told me that the army had not carried out a coup d'etat.
Instead, by popular demand, it would give the Egyptian people the chance to reboot their democracy.
Different views
Continue reading the main story
Egypt key dates
- 25 January 2011: Anti-government protests begin
- 11 February 2011: President Hosni Mubarak resigns
- 24 June 2012: Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Morsi wins presidential elections
- 26 December 2012: President Morsi signs a controversial new constitution into law following a referendum
- 3 July 2013: President Morsi is deposed after street protests
- 14 August 2013: Hundreds of pro-Morsi supporters killed when troops clear sit-in protests
It has not worked out that way,
even though the military and its commander, Gen Abdul Fattah al-Sisi,
have plenty of backing for what they are doing.
So far it looks more like an attempt to revive the security state that sustained Mr Mubarak for 30 years.
Once again, Egypt is being governed under an emergency law that gives the state draconian powers.
Mr ElBaradei has resigned as vice-president from the government the military installed.
Hundreds are dead.
The Muslim Brotherhood and the military - and both sets of
their sympathisers - both believe that the future of Egypt's next
generation is at stake, and both are right. But their views of the
future are very different.
The best way forward would be for all sides in Egypt - and
there is a range of opinion, not two monolithic blocs - to agree a way
to get people into work and to make social peace.
But that is not happening. The argument is being fought out on the streets. And that is a tragedy.
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